RealClearPolitics - July 24th
RealClearPolitics
July 24, 2008
Four-term Senator Frank Lautenberg has never faced an easy re-election, and according to a new poll this year won't be any different. Republican candidate Dick Zimmer is within striking distance, and the GOP, searching for new targets, could decide to make a play for the Garden State.
The poll, conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute for Gannett, surveyed 698 registered voters between 7/17-21 for a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Lautenberg and Zimmer, a former member of Congress, were tested. The survey sample was made up of 42% Democratic voters, 25% Republican voters and 33% independents and others.
General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lautenberg.....45 / 75 / 14 / 34
Zimmer............37 / 10 / 71 / 40
Lautenberg has never been the most popular public official in New Jersey. Just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him while 29% say they have an unfavorable impression, and his job approval rating sits at 46%, below the crucial 50% mark most pollsters agree makes for a safe incumbent.
Still, New Jersey is unlike other states in that voters there are notoriously reluctant to answer pollsters' questions. The number of undecided voters usually remains sky-high until the final week before Election Day, when they break toward one candidate. In recent years, that phenomenon has enticed Republicans to spend heavily on two governors' contests and two Senate races, though in all four races undecideds broke to the Democratic candidate.
If the National Republican Senatorial Committee decides to spend in New Jersey again this year, they will have to deal with two of the most expensive media markets in the country to get their message out, in New York City and Philadelphia. Polls that show Lautenberg well under the 50% mark and suggest he is an unpopular incumbent may just be enough to get Republicans involved once again.
URL to Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll:
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP17_2.pdf